Tue 27 May 2008
F1:2008 - The reason why Lewis Hamilton has been so good lately
Posted by Craig under Formula 1 with the tags F1:2008 • Formula 1 • Lewis Hamilton • McLaren • Monaco • TurkeyThe last couple of races have got me thinking.
Over the last year or so, Lewis Hamilton has had some brilliant races, and some not so brilliant races where he made some pretty silly mistakes or bad choices.
Given the way last year ended, with those bad choices costing him the world title, it was important that he came out this year and made sure that history didn’t repeat itself. Questions were raised about whether he was experienced and knowledgable enough to set the car up properly and make the difficult decisions that he would have to make if he were to win races and be the champion.
It seems that fate has been on his side in this regard at least. When it’s been questionable whether Hamilton would make a correct decision, the choice has been taken out of his hands in the last couple of races.
In Turkey his team were advised that Lewis was so hard on his tyres that they wouldn’t last the race unless he stopped three times for new rubber. It turned out to be the best thing that could have happened and he managed to snatch an unexpected second place - would he have chosen to do a three stop strategy otherwise? I doubt it, and also doubt he would have managed that second place.
Again, in Monaco last time out fate offered a lending hand to the Englishman. I’m sure he wasn’t thinking it a good thing at the time, but his early pitstop after clattering the barriers actually worked in his favour, allowing the team to fill him with fuel and therefore pit later in the race at the exact time that dry tyres became essential. Without that early mistake, there’s no chance his team would have been so fortunate with their pitstops and I think it unlikely in the extreme that he would have driven to victory.
Personally, I can understand why Lewis and McLaren want to accept all the plaudits for these results but I don’t understand their reluctance to publically accept they have had more than their fair share of luck. There’s no denying that Lewis is a good driver, and McLaren are a good team but sometimes you need to have more than just skill and experience.
This year if Lewis is successful in his title bid then it will come at least partly because of the decisions which have been made for him rather than by him.
May 27th, 2008 at 11:26 am
I would say he was 3 (4 ?) times lucky in Monaco:
First he hit the barrier, punctured his tyre and was lucky not to crash out of the race. (and the luck you mentioned above about the timing of this mishap
)
Then thanks to “Trulli train” he returned from the pitlane in 5th place, still well within the reach of the front runners.
Then he managed to finish the race despite punctured tyre.
But that takes nothing away from his win … One has to have luck on his side to win such a crazy race
I wonder if he would be willing to trade all this luck in Monaco for a bit more luck on his way to pitlane in Shanghai last year …
May 27th, 2008 at 1:04 pm
@Milos: I’m pretty sure he would give up this victory to have ensured some points in Shanghai 2007 - even though this Monaco win was the best moment of his life. I’m sure a world championship would have been slightly better!
May 27th, 2008 at 5:33 pm
[...] F1:2008 - The reason why Lewis Hamilton has been so good lately - craigblog.co.uk “This year if Lewis is successful in his title bid then it will come at least partly because of the decisions which have been made for him rather than by him.” (tags: LewisHamilton luck McLaren MonacoGrandPrix pitstop weather tyres rain) [...]
May 28th, 2008 at 9:10 am
[...] F1 2008: The reason why Lewis Hamilton has been so good lately - Craig reckons Hamilton’s victory in Monte-Carlo owed more to luck than skill. [...]
May 28th, 2008 at 10:06 am
Good point about the set-up, Craig, and I think that it makes a lot of sense that the team may have overruled Hamilton. But on the other hand I’m sure last year he was getting criticised for his lack of team-working during the Alonso saga. Surely if he can willingly accept the team’s advice then that’s a positive?
Also sometimes Michael Schumacher and Ferrari appeared to have the luck of the devil as well. Is there not a case for a really good driver and team making their own luck by skill, knowledge and instinct? Might this not be what Hamilton and McLaren have managed over the last two races?
We’ve been feeling that there’s a strong sense of renewed confidence about McLaren since Turkey. It’s as if they have only now managed to put the whole 2007 championship mess/Spygate behind them and emerged into clean air.
However, we just took a took at what odds bookies were offering on the drivers’ and constructors’ championships (it’s here if you’re interested: http://preview.tinyurl.com/6p54ks) and Raikkonen/Ferrari are the absolute clear winners, so the markets still have to be convinced about the renaissance of Hamilton. And they’re generally very accurate predictors…
May 28th, 2008 at 10:26 am
@LJH - Brits on Pole: There’s no doubting that Schumacher was indeed lucky over his career, both in terms of sheer good fortune and also in making decisions which ultimately turned out in his favour, but may have been viewed as lucky from the outside.
I would say though that the last couple of races have essentially left McLaren with no option but to follow a certain course of action. In Turkey, they were advised to do 3 stops and only a fool would have gone against the tyre manufacturer’s advice in my opinion - therefore switching to a 3 stop strategy wasn’t really down to McLaren or Lewis.
Similarly in Monaco, it was clipping the barrier and the need for an early pitstop which resulted in Lewis ultimately having the ideal strategy. Again I don’t think McLaren or Lewis really had a choice in what they did there, common sense dictated that they had plenty of time to do a long stop so they might as well fill him with fuel at the same time.
Admittedly, he required other sources of luck as well such as the safety car which allowed him to catch back up to the guys at the front - plus the Ferraris failing to take the first corner at various stages in the race helped as well!
I’m not holidng this against Lewis really, it’s not his fault if good fortune wants to pay him a visit after all - I just would have preferred him to be a little more open to the idea his win may not have all been down to him and his team doing “a fantastic job”!